Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 883.334918 1006.783524 1147.723225 1321.953448 1533.517085 1784.656313 2.109230e+03
2024-10-20 691.423923 843.223821 1033.610554 1295.080974 1653.331454 2140.410587 2.877896e+03
2024-10-27 582.283409 738.078223 944.471020 1246.630597 1693.703471 2359.551065 3.489010e+03
2024-11-03 534.717129 701.403923 933.383146 1293.749421 1867.817554 2804.645675 4.597312e+03
2024-11-10 493.185119 665.048451 914.062392 1320.625153 2011.081023 3234.681586 5.861357e+03
2024-11-17 457.554702 631.541504 892.436956 1337.280298 2137.347947 3668.181510 7.346783e+03
2024-11-24 420.446112 591.044609 853.921978 1318.138735 2193.664843 3982.449641 8.740009e+03
2024-12-01 397.958168 570.128337 843.073284 1343.343814 2336.805959 4521.397287 1.107090e+04
2024-12-08 382.159035 557.773380 844.126036 1389.043099 2530.376645 5245.415577 1.457021e+04
2024-12-15 363.493804 538.783192 831.414939 1406.339456 2667.640635 5888.049664 1.848526e+04
2024-12-22 342.215481 513.495325 804.862076 1392.289650 2731.283999 6362.125145 2.233030e+04
2024-12-29 329.178309 500.878868 799.331975 1419.400550 2898.345074 7214.530274 2.931847e+04
2025-01-05 306.375628 470.660546 760.498047 1375.409572 2889.980730 7553.795824 3.443733e+04
2025-01-12 287.393166 445.849754 729.718008 1345.238025 2913.709486 8032.713323 4.183540e+04
2025-01-19 267.954777 418.760055 692.052847 1294.534968 2870.480805 8255.170118 4.808260e+04
2025-01-26 261.813336 414.910096 698.525414 1344.069878 3121.720104 9787.130111 7.306291e+04
2025-02-02 253.781894 406.942346 696.023617 1372.366297 3321.006758 11276.932073 1.088677e+05
2025-02-09 245.283247 397.444560 689.468400 1389.902219 3493.885779 12813.538877 1.635118e+05
2025-02-16 233.920787 381.793700 668.908651 1369.747787 3538.786732 13743.696852 2.211136e+05
2025-02-23 227.618156 375.305339 666.797423 1396.287814 3753.676145 15891.685230 3.804551e+05
2025-03-02 223.488946 372.673785 672.547904 1444.429931 4066.120182 19115.034809 8.244975e+05
2025-03-09 217.180426 365.347696 667.466132 1462.658282 4274.475379 21969.731673 1.793792e+06
2025-03-16 208.812987 353.438681 651.316737 1447.851109 4347.350111 23892.911704 3.583867e+06